Politics

Because I don't belong to a party, I'm not a voter today. I've voted Republican and supported the Republican party all my life. I think I've mentioned previously that there's a difference in an Oregon Republican from the national perception of the Republican Party as a whole. I grew up with names like Hatfield and Packwood, conservative in many ways, but also a regard for the environment, social programs, civil rights, etc. I will not officially begin to cover a candidate until there are 1 candidate in each party (could be as soon as tonight), but I can tell you the candidate I'm supporting today rhymes with Yo Mama. Alaska is a wild card when it comes to Democrats, but I think McCain has a strong hold on the Republican delegates. Polls close in AK tonight at 8:30 local time which is technically Super Wednesday on the East Coast.

New Roles and New Opportunites in a New Age

“Each time a man stands up for an ideal, or acts to improve the lot of others, or strikes out against injustice, he sends forth a tiny ripple of hope...”

- Robert F. Kennedy

There have been times in the world’s history where great men and women have stepped into these roles with the sole motivation to make a difference and change the world as much as they could. Names like Benjamin Franklin, Mother Teresa, Susan B. Anthony, Mahatma Gandhi, Rosa Parks, Martin Luther King Jr., Desmond Tutu, and many other people throughout time. None of them were Presidents or Kings or Queens, but all of them have shifted the world we live in today.
As I watch coverage of the 2008 election, I think of all the quality people who are seeking the highest office in America. Only one of them will win in November, so what happens with the rest of them? Likely they will go back to being Senators, Representatives, and some of them will just stay candidates for the next time it comes around. I think what this country and this world need now are more people who are willing to use their ideas, their “power” and their abilities to step into the roles of world-changers. I think we live in a cynical time where we distrust a celebrity or politician who wants to use their voice to speak for others. That’s an us problem and shouldn’t deter great people from stepping up. I’m sure the cynics were rough on Susan B. Anthony and we know how they treated MLK.
Immediately I think of people like Al Gore, Bill Gates, Bono, even George Clooney. They seem to be using what influence they have whether it is money, celebrity or political clout to take on their issues. Al Gore has been outspoken in his crusade to improve our environment, you may not agree with everything he says, but you can respect his effort. Bono has been outspoken against many things in his career, but lately his focus has been on AIDS, hunger and poverty in Africa. Bill Gates is walking away from Microsoft later this year to go full time with his foundation that ambitiously is going after the issue of world health. George Clooney has been trying for years to get America to listen to Darfur’s cries. And these 4 guys are just a few that come to mind immediately. With the grassroots support we’ve seen in this election for a Ron Paul or Barack Obama or John Edwards, they have an incredible chance to take on a role in history if they aren’t selected to represent their party or their country. I believe we live in a time that needs more people and less government stepping in to fight against hunger, world health, intolerance, human rights, liberty (whether democratic or not) and squabbles between countries that lead to war. So my challenge to these candidates and the question I would ask if given the chance: If you don’t win the nomination or the presidency, how will you continue to change the world? I think the answers would not only pave the way for a great post election lifestyle, but also give you a pretty good idea of what they would be like as a president.

The Presidential Voice,Part Three: Timing and Rhetoric

As I'm sure you're aware, Barack Obama (D-IL) officially announced his intention of running for President in the 2008 election yesterday. There isn't much suspense between when a potential candidate declares they are setting up an exploratory committee and when they announce they're going ahead with their campaign, but don't think for a moment that yesterday's announcement isn't significant. Senator Obama will be a key figure in American politics for years to come.
I was watching Tim Russert's interview show on MSNBC last night and he was interviewing Terry McAuliffe (former DNC chair and current Hillary Clinton campaign chair) and he pointed out that Bill Clinton didn't enter the 1992 election until October of 1991. Translate that fact to this year's election cycle and the precedent is there for someone off the radar today entering the race 8 months from now. While I know "the event of the internet" has made it less and less likely for someone with presidential credentials to be even relatively unknown, the possibility remains. This might be a particularly hopeful thought to the Republican Party, considering their lackluster cast of candidates.
This is an interesting time for the candidates, too. While the most exciting time might be as we get closer to November 2008, this time period between candidates declaring their intentions and the actual primaries is rare. The candidates are messaging to define themselves which sometimes gets lost once the "eating of young" starts. I've always thought the most fascinating part about a Presidential election is when the non-incumbent party's candidates shred each other to bits for the nomination, but this year both party's are in that position of not having a predetermined candidate. The rhetoric today is not a foreshadowing of things to come. When Senator Obama says, "Each and every time, a new generation has risen up and done what's needed to be done. Today we are called once more — and it is time for our generation to answer that call" Hillary's campaign will counter with something about the lack of experience in Washington. It's all rhetoric and the toughest thing is to try to disseminate who the candidate really is through the message of the people behind the candidate. Barack Obama's speech had a great deal of energy and genuineness to it, and I admire that. Like Reagan spinning the age question back on Mondale in the 1984 debate, Obama has spun the inexperience question to be a genuine message of change. I'll be interested in the coming weeks to see who joins the Obama campaign.

The Presidential Voice,Part Two: A Question of Age

I've been developing an idea for a novel for years now wherein the central character wakes up on his 35th birthday with a neurotic borderline psychotic obsession with the idea that he's now eligible to be President of the United States. 35 is the minimum age, though the youngest president to be sworn in was Theodore Roosevelt at 42. It's a common misconception that John Kennedy was the youngest president, but he was the youngest elected president. Teddy was VP and took over office when McKinley was killed. Why is it that anyone 35, or 42 for that matter would be laughed out of the race? Well the average age of a POTUS (President of the United States) sworn in is 54.9 years old, and the average age of a POTUS leaving office is 60, which takes into account the 1 term Presidents and those that left office prematurely for whatever reason. The oldest president to take office was Ronald Reagan who was 70 when he was inaugurated in 1981. The next oldest was William Harrison, who was sworn in at 68, but died a month later. To look at the field of candidates for the 2008 election, something that immediately stands out is that if elected, John McCain would surpass Ronald Reagan as the oldest president to take office. McCain will be 72 on Inauguration day, January 20, 2009. McCain would also become the first president born in the 1930's to become president (the 30's are the only decade between 1810-1819 decade to not produce a president). Does age set him, and perhaps his party, back in the race for the Oval Office? I think it plays a part. Hillary Clinton will be 61 on the next Inauguration day, whereas Barack Obama will be a spry 47 and John Edwards will be right in the median range with 56. On the other side of the aisle, Rudy Guliani will be 65 and Huckabee will be 53. If you're a stickler for averages, your candidate that will battle it out in the 2008 election will be John Edwards and Mike Huckabee. Joseph Biden who just entered the race, is the oldest Democrat in the conversation at this point and would be 66 on that January day in 2009. Someone anonymously commented on my last Presidential Voice post asking about Mitt Romney and why I left him out of my post (I won't reveal where their IP address came from). I'm willing to include him (he'll be 62 in 2009, btw), but I don't think his religious affiliation will play well nationally. The religion question is a big one for Huckabee and Brownback, too. 2004 proved that the religious right still had a big influence on the election, but 2006, though not a Presidential election, showed that there's a shift happening, even in traditionally conservative districts. Religion is a whole big topic that can easily be a separate post, but I will point out that the traditional religious right has pretty strong negative feelings about Hillary, whereas Edwards and Obama have strong connections with the red states.

The Presidential Voice,Part One: Disclosure

With all the candidates throwing their hats into the ring of the Presidential Election of 2008, I've been looking a lot at the major candidates and stacking them up against history. I definitely haven't decided on a candidate. To kick off my series on this topic I feel it necessary to make a few disclosures. I've traditionally voted and supported the Republican Party, though I've always considered myself an Oregon Republican in the vein of Mark Hatfield. I'm excited that there isn't a legitimate front runner from either party, and I am open to lending my support to a candidate of either party if their values line up with mine. The title of this series, The Presidential Voice, is in reference to the idea that through their life experiences as well as grooming and coaching, a candidate starts to sound like a President rather than a candidate for President. In my opinion, The Presidential Voice has been missing from this country for many years. Since perhaps Ronald Reagan left office, the presidential elections have ended up being a contest for the lesser of two evils. While I have reverence for the presidents since Reagan, I think both Bushes and Clinton lacked the Presidential voice, even though the term was coined with reference to Clinton's rise in public image from Bubba from Arkansas to a legitimate answer to George H. W. Bush. The candidates that have stepped forward to declare their intentions to seek the presidency will, over the course of the coming months, define themselves and their policies. We will get a better idea of what they stand for and who they stand for. Like I said I don't see a front runner at this stage in the game, but the early favorites are Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill), Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY), fmr Senator John Edwards (D-NC), Senator John McCain (R-AZ), Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS), fmr Mayor Rudolph Guliani (R-NY) and fmr Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR). All 7 of these leading candidates have things they stand for that I can buy into, but they also have things that can hurt their chances to be inaugurated on January 20, 2009. I will explore both the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates in this series. The primaries leading up to the election in 1992, showed that a candidate who wasn't even on the early radar could emerge as the president, when the nationally-unheard-of Clinton gained the nomination of the Democrats over previous national figures of Al Gore, Paul Tsongas, Jerry Brown, and Bob Casey. So, based on that precedent, our next president might not even be on the radar, but in this new age of information, I imagine one of the 7 candidates I listed above will end up being elected the 44th President of the United States.